@RISK’s
ability to handle highly uncertain information made it invaluable in coping with
a disaster like Katrina.
Henry Yennie, Louisiana Office of Mental Health
I have found @RISK to be an extremely
robust product. Using this program I can now do analyses in about 20 minutes that used
to take more than 2 days.
Gary Auld, Principal Geotechnical Engineer, Coffey Mining
We start by building a static model,
and not surprisingly, the results look great. Then we add risk into the model using
@RISK for a proper risk analysis, and the picture changes. The students quickly learn
that there are possible negative outcomes. With @RISK they quickly turn static models
into dynamic, probabilistic models that show all the possible outcomes. Students find
@RISK easy to use – it takes very little time to become proficient. When the
students complete the course, they understand risk, they understand how @RISK can be
used to analyse risk, and once they understand the scope of risk, they have the tools
to come up with a plan to mitigate risk.
I don’t
see how a manager can be effective without considering the risks inherent in any
business decision. In other words, I don’t know how they live without @RISK.
Professor Roy Nersesian, Columbia University
Since the future is unknown, it would
be implausible to use point estimates to represent future values of critical success
factors. Range estimates are an improvement, but @RISK is even better because it is
able to reflect the important fact that some values within the plausible range may
be more likely than others. More than that, the correlation capability of @RISK allows
the analyst to model the fact that co-movements of variables in the same direction
may not be as likely as co-movements in the opposite direction.
Using
@RISK’s tornado diagram to evaluate the sensitivity of the outcomes to each
of the input variables in your simulation is particularly useful in focusing management
attention on the factors that matter most to their organisations.
Just like
Excel itself, @RISK does its work without involving you in its computational complexities.
So students who may have been scared of stats and data analysis before can feel
perfectly at ease creating their simulations––and so, they want to
do more. “@RISK represents a major advance in the business analyst’s
toolkit. By sparing the analyst the trouble of having to reinvent simulation in
an Excel environment, @RISK allows the analyst to focus on structuring problems
that make managerial sense and on interpreting results for the purpose of supporting
executive decisions.
Dr. Domingo Castelo Joaquin, Illinois State University
College of Business
@RISK was vital to our simulation model.
It allowed us to incorporate uncertainties and run random simulations on the various
scenarios. @RISK’s ability to correlate distributions of random variables was
essential to the model. Additionally, we used @RISK’s output statistics to compare
the various model scenarios. @RISK allowed us to incorporate uncertainties and correlations,
and to systematically evaluate each of the farm policy tools.
Assistant Professor Brent Gloy, Cornell University
I really appreciate working with @RISK.
It is a simple-to-use tool that calculates scenarios for a given situation. The result
tells you how likely it is that a scenario will happen. The simulation results can
be displayed as graphs and charts that have presentation quality.
René Köhler, Aftermarket Business Planning
Manager, Rolls-Royce
At Infineon we have realised that systematic
risk management can improve our decisions in many applications. We therefore employ
the methodology of quantitative risk analysis to analyse our development projects as
well as when assessing general financial decisions.
The
use of @RISK for Project and @RISK for Excel from Palisade forms a fundamental
component of successful risk management within Infineon. We have already trained
more than 1,000 employees on how to use these tools. We are very pleased with the
good service we've received from Palisade.
Dr. Martin Erdmann, Senior Manager Risk Management, Infineon
Technologies AG
The launch of a new product involves
uncertainties that traditional forecasting techniques cannot solve. I use @RISK to
minimise the risks involved in launching a new product to the market without historical
data.
Antonio López, Finance Department, Nintendo Españae
We've trained well over a thousand
people throughout the company on @RISK.
Bob Hunt, Associate Director for Investment Analysis, Procter & Gamble
Corporate Finance
We love it because it incorporates
BestFit and gives us the flexibility to evaluate alternative distributions on screen.
Art Misyan, Director of Foreign Exchange, Merck Pharmaceuticals
We're always working with incomplete
information. We're looking for results we can be at least 90 percent certain of. I
take @RISK everywhere I go in the company.
Soubhagya Parija, Senior Analyst, Cinergy Corporation
Simple spreadsheets tell a number.
@RISK paints a picture! Show chief executives they have an 80% confidence level in
these outcomes, and they come to a decision in minutes!
Mark Rudd, Principal/Regulatory Compliance, Northern Indiana
Power Company
When you can manipulate multiple variables,
the model becomes more sophisticated. It allows you to make additional assumptions
which take your analysis to another level than was possible by just using Excel’s
Add-in functions. You need @RISK to assess the effect of [multiple] variables. @RISK
will automatically rank the correlations and do regression analyses for you.
Robert Abad, Global Emerging Market Advisors, L.P.
@RISK is the easiest risk analysis
tool on the market, with the most capabilities. Risk analysis within Fluor has moved
up to a different level because of Palisade training on the software.
Waymon Lofton, Oil and Gas Global Estimating, Fluor Corporation
It is very important for these new
decision makers to be entirely comfortable with the overwhelming amount and complexity
of information they’ll have to deal with when they when they leave the school
for that first big job. And we’re convinced that @RISK is the tool that can provide
the most sophisticated perspective on the information they’ll use for decision
making.
Barbara Ostdiek, Finance Professor, Jesse H. Jones Graduate
School of Management, Rice University
The bottom line is, with @RISK by Palisade,
we can now quantify economic uncertainly with considerable insight. The analytics in
@RISK are up front, available, and flexible enough to provide me with everything I
need. It’s obvious that @RISK is a great software package for commercial use,
but for us, we see equal value as a teaching tool.
Larry Chorn, Associate Professor of Petroleum Engineering,
Colorado School of Mines
During our everyday consulting work
we are using @RISK 4.5 Professional for risk analysis.
A major
part of our calculations is done in Excel; hence, this tool is very convenient
for us, virtually providing an additional function. Thus the effort needed to learn
how to use the software is relatively small. Many functions can be recognised intuitively
and are usable like those known from Excel. Furthermore, an online tutorial offering
a good overall view and a manual for questions of detail whilst using the application
are available.
Since
we are using this tool we can execute more complex and statistically established
calculations in risk management for our customers. For instance, the fast identification
of the best fitting distribution of any market factors has improved the quality
of our results. Mainly in the risk calculation of the rarely normally distributed
yields of raw material factors this function meets our needs. Also, before we started
using @RISK, complex simulations with freely definable distributions of the influent
parameters were either impossible or could only be managed under considerable expenditure.
With @RISK we are now able, and this without the necessity of additional PC capacity,
to process thousands of iterations. Extremely well elaborated is the graphics component;
distributions, input factors, results etc. are presented in various graphic formats
automatically.
The really
convenient issue of @RISK is that not only the input factors are independent from
the input structure but the results can be exported into Excel to be processed
further, too. We are pleased to recommend @RISK because it represents good value
for money.
Schwabe, Ley & Greiner, Treasury Consultancy & Training,
Wien, Austria, www.slg.co.at
We have been using @RISK in core MBA
teaching and electives since 1994. The @RISK sessions have been very popular with our
students and helped us communicate better important concepts about risk and return.
The software is user-friendly and well integrated into spreadsheets, which makes it
very easy for students to start using it with minimal advance training. It also provides
a range of advanced features, such as sensitivity and scenario analysis, tornado diagrams
and parametric analysis that are appealing to managers with a need for sophisticated
risk analysis. Many students use @RISK in their project work and, after they complete
the MBA programme, in their working environment. We believe that tools such as @RISK
are becoming essential for modern managers.
Kiriakos Vlahos, Assistant Professor
Decision Sciences, London Business School
@RISK is an excellent tool for extending
risk analysis in Excel. Delegates in modelling courses appreciate the user-friendly
interfaces and clear reporting.
Alastair Day, Systematic Finance plc,
Guildford, UK
We use the DecisionTools Suite for
practical geological and engineering geological problems where decision and risk analysis
models are of major relevance. We found it extremely useful, easy to use and an invaluable
tool for students.
Giovanni B. Crosta, Dip. Scienze Geologiche
e Geotecnologie, Università degli Studi di Milano - Bicocca
Our research and analysis department
is using @RISK as a core part of the budgetary preparation
process. Applying @RISK in the early stages of the process, when our goal is to prepare
forecasts, has greatly improved our capabilities to define all the risk factors involved.
Furthermore, the presentation options included in the package have greatly improved
our communication between departments inside our institution, as well as with the interested
public.
Dr. Slaven Mickovic, state undersecretary
in Ministry of Finance, Republic of Slovenia
Decision and Risk Analysis is a core
part of the Management Science module in the Business Information Technology degree
at Kingston. Before, students found it difficult to develop and run small decision
and risk models using Excel alone. Now they can use the full capabilities of the powerful
Excel add-ins that come with Palisade's DecisionTools
Suite to run and analyse even full-scale models in a very efficient manner. My
lectures have become more efficient too thanks to the graphic facilities available
in the software. There's nothing better than a good graph to illustrate the concepts
behind decision and risk analysis and Palisade's tools help me enormously in this task.
PrecisionTree, TopRank and @RISK are
all used intensively in our computer-supported tutorials. Students learn quickly
to build decision and risk analysis models on the hoof because they are working
in an (spreadsheet) environment that is already familiar to them. They not only
learn but also have fun! In summary, Palisade's DecisionTools Suite has revolutionised
our delivery of the Management Science module at Kingston!
The DecisionTools
Suite Professional is currently being used by approximately 150 Degree Students,
with this number rising over the next three months, to an anticipated 180.
L. Alberto Franco, Senior Lecturer
in Management Science, Kingston Business School, UK
We use @RISK to quantify and analyse
business risks that are involved in international venture transactions. Adding @RISK
to company valuation techniques like the Discounted Cash Flow(DCF) gives us a more
realistic view on future performance developments and lets us do more accurate investment
decisions. Especially the ease of use through the Excel-add-in, the richness of distribution
functions and the powerful sensitivity analysis functionality makes @RISK fun to work
with.
Martin Kroeger, Venture Manager, Siemens
Information and Communication, Munich
@RISK is a wonderful tool which helps
business people make accurate, efficient financial projections, as well as accurately
establish which risks their investments are exposed to.
Gabriel Rovayo, PH.D, Decisión
Analysis Professor, Instituto de Desarrollo Emprearial, Guayaquil - Quito, Ecuador
Finding the limits of @RISK and
the DecisionTools Suite is like finding the limits
of Excel - there are none.
Denny Migl, CDX Gas
First things first: you really did
an outstanding job! This new edition of @RISK 4.5 is the
kind of risk tool that everyone needs regardless of his/her professional field.
I found
tons of enhancements that helped me achieve greater modeling flexibility, especially
in terms of Value at Risk (VaR) and Monte Carlo Simulation. I'd like to highlight
some of the most relevant findings:
The Define
Distribution Window makes me define uncertainty easier than ever
Quick
Reports are really fast and straight to the point in terms of critical risk analysis
results
@RISK Goal
Seek definitely outperforms current Excel functions, because @RISK uses
multiple simulations to determine the input value
that achieves the specific goal.
Stress
Analysis is certainly what I was looking for in order to get better VaR analysis.
Hernan Alzate, School of Business, SUNY
New Paltz, NY
We are a major non-ferrous metals producer
in México, the first gold producer in México, and first Silver Producer
in the World. We have been @RISK users since 1992 and we use it mainly for Projects
Economics Risk Evaluation and Analysis. We have found it is very easy to adapt it to
uncertainty evaluation as well. For example we have used @RISK to evaluate the final
random error from a chain of manufacturing operations based on variability of statistics.
@RISK functions describe uncertainty in every operation.
I have
been using @RISK personally since 1992 and this is the finest product I have tried
ever. Installation was quite streamlined - no problems at all even when I have
my machine saturated with many applications. It's faster than version 4.0 on execution.
Model building is faster with the toolbar commands and Define
Distribution window. Reporting has been optimised, making it easy for non-frequent
users. Direct reporting to Excel is very well implemented and elegant. The Advanced
Analysis tools are also well implemented.
Ignacio Quijas J., Technology Manager,
Met-Mex Penoles S.A. de C.V., Mexico
There are some very nice features... Quick
Reports are an excellent improvement. Overall, @RISK 4.5 looks great.
Russell McGuire, Risklabs, LLC, Marietta,
GA
The @RISK 4.5 multimedia
tutorial is an excellent idea!
William L. Monroe, Financial Planner
@RISK 4.5's Quick Reports are good - a
valuable addition.
Tony Martin, Department of Agriculture,
Western Australian
I wish I were finding bugs in @RISK
4.5 to help, but I'm not. I'm using @RISK as I normally do! I really like the DecisionTools
line and use them in my federally-funded research. Great job!
John (Chuck) Schafer, Ph.D., Associate
Professor, Department of Psychology, University of Cincinnati
Views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the
University of Cincinnati
@RISK 4.5's Advanced
Sensitivity Analysis is a very welcome new addition, and I enjoy working @RISK
very much.
Sebastian Bjorksten, Director Capital
Investments, Six Continents Hotels, London
Alternate
Parameter Distribution Functions: I have used the James Murtha P10,
P90 formula (Oil and Gas Journal, 1994) quite extensively in some of my models.
The Alternate Parameter distribution functions will simplify my models considerably.
The Alternate Parameter distribution functions are a significant addition to the
program. They have added significant capability to the running of some of my models.
Many oil and gas resource estimators (US Geological Survey, Geological Survey of
Canada) report the median value and a low and upside value. I need to be able to
reproduce their distributions and the Alternate Parameter distribution functions
make this very easy.
Quick
Reports: This is a significant improvement in the reports part of @RISK,
in particular the ability to send the charts in native Excel format. I very rarely
used the graphics in a picture format. The new feature allows me to send all the
graphs at once rather than one at a time as I have been used to. The one page format
of results is very good.
Goal
Seek: A useful addition.
Ken Drummond, Drummond Consulting,
Calgary, AB, Canada
I have used the whole range of products
under the DecisionTools umbrella, and cannot speak highly enough of the quality, power
and flexibility of the entire software suite. For example, @RISK and PrecisionTree
have been applied to risk assessments for oil and gas projects, modelling of extreme
environmental loads, as well as evaluation of biological and food-related hazards.
I have yet to find a risk problem I could not handle with the software!
Dr.Gus Cammaert, Senior Consultant
with DNV, Aberdeen, Scotland
As a former managing partner in an
industrial firm I have been using almost your complete range of Excel-based @RISK products
for decision making in complex problem situations, mainly in production, marketing
and project management for more than 10 years. I am referring not only to @RISK itself,
but also to your exceedingly beneficial additional programmes like BestFit, RISKView
and, of course, @RISK for Project.
I am pleased
to confirm that the acquisition of your software components has proven to be of
surpassing performance on numerous occasions and in the most variegated operational
areas so that the purchasing price was retrieved more than hundred fold already.
It is the intuitive operator guidance that I want to point out commendatory because
it excels all your programmes I have got to know so far.
I would
like to allude to the fact that none of the Palisade products I am using has ever
caused a system problem or a system break down.
Dr. Werner Tabarelli, Consul General
For Austria, In the Principality Of Liechtenstein
I particularly like the easy handling
of @RISK. @RISK makes it simple to master Monte Carlo simulation. It is uncomplicated
for the beginner and a joy for the expert.
Gustav Hülsebruch, German Risk
Society, info@dgr.de
When I first read about Palisade's
@RISK and BestFit software, I simply had to have it. This software is really amazing.
For some years I've been looking for a flexible product like this. No more stressful
late nights working with static Excel spreadsheets in order to meet my clients' deadlines.
Palisade's software really makes it easier for me to do my work in less time and with
much more fun, too!
Rolf van Lingen, Logion, transportation,
distribution and inventory management consultancy
@RISK is an excellent tool for simulation.
I find it easy to use and powered by excellent features...Its charting power is unmatched.
Jim Clark, June 1999, Financial Engineering
News
The benefit of having used @RISK is
that you'll now have more information about the statistical probability of events rather
than just having to rely on your own experience
and your gut feeling.
Steve Cotterel, January 1999, Project
Manager Today
[@RISK 4.0] can provide any organisation
with invaluable insight into the potential risks and rewards of complex business decisions.
Chad Hammond, INFOWORLD, March 20,
2000 - Read Review
@RISK is an excellent tool for simulation.
I find it easy to use and powered by excellent features...Its charting power is unmatched.
"@RISK 3.5 Provides Simulation Power" by
James Clark, Financial Engineering News, June 1999
[@RISK] is an outstanding package.
[It is] powerful, efficient, and fun to use. And [the] cost is reasonable.
Richard E. Sherman, "Ask a Casualty
Actuary," Business Insurance Feb 9, 1998
DecisionTools is a really important
suite of tools, and I applaud Palisade¹s effort to better integrate some of
them into the @RISK modeling framework. BestFit is a really solid distribution selector,
and @RISK is a good backbone for the qualitative and quantitative work I perform.
I like the flexibility.
Bruce Siegel, Engineering and Business
Process Consultant, Los Gatos, California
We have a collection of professional
services under one roof that targets economic or project development. We recently
applied @RISK 4.0 to a simulator to a $2.5M restoration & renovation of a small hotel
located in Florida. Without @RISK 4.0 I doubt seriously if we would have been able
to craft the deal to a successful conclusion. @RISK 4.0 might be compared to the
new night-vision heads-up display that GM is offering on its new Cadillacs. It enables
you to "see" things that you cannot otherwise see, and react or make business decisions
accordingly.
Jack Moran, MBA Companies, Pensacola, Florida
For me the greatest strength of @RISK
is that it adds functionality to spreadsheeting, a skill that all our students already
possess. @RISK adds yet another dimension to sensitivity analysis. In addition, @RISK
can be used to visually illustrate many of the big ideas in statistical thought,
and this can be done easily within a classroom/laboratory environment.
James Clayson, Departments of International
Business Administration and Mathematics, American University of Paris, Paris, France
I have used the @RISK software for
about 10 years now, and have found it extremely useful for constructing simple as
well as moderately complex Monte Carlo simulation models. Using the tool, it has
been possible to develop simulation models directly reflecting the epidemiological
relationships relevant to the simulation problem without requiring computer programming
skills.
Dr. Dirk Pfeffer, Professor of Veterinary
Epidemiology, Royal Veterinary College, University of London
@RISK
takes the if out
of what-if situations and lets business users make more intelligent decisions.
John Taschek, PC Week
Monte Carlo simulation represents a significant advance in the black art of
modeling the future. [
] Monte Carlo technology will make us and
our clients a little smarter about what we can and cannot know about
tomorrow and the days that follow.
Robert Veres, Dow Jones Investment
Advisor May 1996
DecisionTools is a superior brand
of products directed at what I consider the gravest and most consequential activities
of most American businesses, Risk Assessment and Decision Making.
Mark Ploskunak, Project Manager, IBM



Introduction to Financial Modeling with @RISK: A Training CD