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By Charles Seiter, PCWorld
May 1999
If you're trying to model complex business situations, Excel's Solver function will
get you only so far; traditional risk-optimisation products like @RISK and Evolver (see
New Products, November 1998) take you a bit further. RISKOptimizer,
from the maker of @RISK and Evolver, handles scheduling, equipment usage, and financial
and other problems that cannot readily be crunched with conventional risk-optimisation
software. For instance, it could allow a shop to use staffing costs and its sales records
to determine the best business hours. Scheduling studies in RISKOptimizer could also
use time-based estimates of traffic jams, rather than simple distance, to plan optimal
routes.
In a plain Excel model, you use single numbers for all variables to come up with a simple
result--for example, Profit = Income ?Expense. Classic tools like Solver let you plug
in a range of values for variables to optimise the result. RISKOptimizer incorporates
probability data, so you get not only a range of results but also an assessment of the
most likely outcomes. The ability to optimise using actual data from business records
as well as most-likely values of inputs (while adjusting statistically for other possible
values) makes RISKOptimizer a better tool than its predecessors
The product demands hefty processing power: In my tests with a shipping copy, small problems with ten adjustable cells took a minute or so to process at 300 MHz. But this beats the weeks you'd need using simple spreadsheets to calculate scheduling, portfolio, distribution, or other problems. This Excel add-in costs more than Excel itself, and it's serious, MBA-level software. But it's easy to learn, and for many business problems, it's the most practical power tool around.
RISKOptimizer
PRO: Uniquely versatile business problem춖olver that
is surprisingly easy to learn.
CON: Puts serious number-crunching demands on hardware
VALUE: Easily pays for itself on complex problems.
Read More!
RISKOptimizer
Main Page
Book: Financial
Models Using Simulation and Optimization
Book: Decision
Making Under Uncertainty with RISKOptimizer