AVERILL M. LAW & DAVID KELTON
An essential reference source, this book is intended for those more mathematically inclined. Ever wonder about how random numbers are generated? This book gives you the nitty gritty on random number generators and algorithms for generating a wide variety of random variates. There is material useful for @RISK and BestFit users, specifically on selecting input probability distributions. Amidst all the math, there are many graphs to visualize the various distributions. There's also a discussion of independence/dependence, and a section on fitting actual data to probability distributions. With over 700 pages, this book contains a wealth of information on simulation modeling that would be appropriate for those interested in risk analysis or system dynamics. HC, 784 pp.

C. VAUGHN JONES
Concept and practice come together nicely in this well written discussion of financial risk associated with investment in big construction projects. The author used @RISK extensively to carry out his analyses and strongly advocates the use of simulation. A must for those of you working directly in utilities and water resource projects. We also highly recommend it for others who are working with financial/economic analysis for very large projects (where the risk cannot be easily diversified through standard portfolio methods). The author has successfully brought together material from business, engineering, economics, demography, probability theory, computer simulation, and policy. This book convincingly shows by example how traditional deterministic analysis can be dangerously misleading. HC, 153 pp

ROBERT T. CLEMEN & TERENCE REILLY
This straightforward book teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis using the DecisionTools Suite. It is well-written, well-organized, and full of case studies and examples. Not surprisingly, it is the leading text in the field of decision analysis, and is used widely by both students and practitioners alike. And, it is chock full of instruction on how to use each of the tools in the DecisionTools Suite - @RISK, PrecisionTree, TopRank, BestFit, and RISKview - to solve real-world problems. Case studies include toxic chemicals and the EPA, new product decisions, investing in the stock market, assessing cancer risk, earthquake prediction, choosing a manufacturing process, life insurance, and mining investments to name a few. The book emphasizes the practical application of decision analysis without overly technical mathematical explanations. The authors goal in writing the book is to improve your decision-making skills through the proper use of decision-making tools and techniques. Palisade strongly recommends this book an excellent instructional source to help you model and analyze real-world problems - including risk - using the techniques of decision analysis. HC 768 pp.

"Best qualities of the book: clarity, good structure, interesting real or realistic fictitious case studies - extremely important to keep the student interested in a topic which other books present in a dry way and with just 'toy' problems." Ileana Costea, Ph.D. Professor of Engineering, California State University, Northridge

WAYNE L. WINSTON
The market leading Operations Research: Application and Algorithms is now in its fourth edition. In this book, Wayne Winston offers a comprehensive introduction to operations research with emphasis on model formation and model building. The reader will gain a solid understanding of the art and science of operations research and acquire the skills needed to solve real world problems.

The author includes hundreds of examples that illustrate applications to industry and emerging new sub disciplines, such as financial engineering. The book addresses topics such as linear and nonlinear programming, sensitivity analysis, decision making under uncertainty, Markov chains, dynamic programming, queuing theory, spreadsheet simulation with @RISK, modeling, forecasting, and more. The new edition includes recent developments in the field. HC, 1418pp.

JAMES MURTHA
A great extension of Murtha's highly successful seminars on the use of @RISK in the petroleum industry. You start here with 2 chapters to get up to speed on the philosophy of risk analysis and the requisite principles in probability, statistics, and Monte Carlo simulation. Following are the basic steps you'd take to actually build, run, and interpret results for a real risk analysis model in @RISK. To make it as hands-on as possible, Murtha includes lots of petroleum examples - an accompanying disk includes all these examples pre-built in Excel worksheets. Volumetric reserves, exponential decline, porosity and water saturation, waterflood prospect, and competitive bidding are some of the examples. This is a rare offering in that you'll learn about the concepts of risk analysis while also getting some very solid hands-on experience with risk analysis modeling in @RISK 4.5. To read more about Decisions Involving Uncertainty, click here. SC, 150 pp

EVANS, MERRAN, ET. AL.
Finally there's a comprehensive source of information on the most important probability distributions. This text presents the key formulas, tables, diagrams and uses for the 39 most commonly used probability distributions. DecisionTools users will find additional information and technical documentation on the distributions used in @RISK and BestFit. This book serves both as a quick look-up reference source and a basic introduction to distributions. It even has formulas for generating random samples from each of the covered distributions. Highly recommended for anyone who works with probability distributions in areas such as risk analysis, data analysis and distribution fitting. SC, 221 pp.

ADEDEJI B. BADIRU & P. SIMIN PULAT
Anyone interested in project management needs to get a strong grip on the fundamentals. This book contains that information, with a slant towards models and computer analysis. Topics include basic project scheduling and planning, modeling and optimization, economic analysis, decision analysis, and computers and software. The book is aimed at people learning about project management, but experienced managers will appreciate the sections on statistical distribution functions and computer applications. Applications covered include LINDO, decision trees analysis, the AHP, and project management software including MS Project.

STEPHEN GREY
Here is a book for anyone interested in risk analysis and project management! The author deals with the topic of realistically assessing and modeling risk using the world's best risk analysis software - @RISK! General topics include risk assessment, modeling and simulation, cost risk, schedule risk, and business forecast risk. The book is written with every member of the project planning team in mind, including project managers, bid managers, sales professionals, estimators, consultants, auditors, and more! The book focuses on @RISK for Excel and for Lotus 1-2-3, but most of the examples can be modeled directly in @RISK for Project as well! HC, 158 pp.

WAYNE L. WINSTON
A straight-forward user guide to @RISK. This new book teaches basic concepts of simulation modeling using @RISK through a variety of examples from operations research, finance, marketing research, and accounting. These examples are accompanied by Excel and 1-2-3 @RISK models that clearly illustrate the concepts presented. You'll see how to use simulation to solve problems such as figuring an optimal bid, option pricing, market share analysis and inventory analysis. You can even simulate the never-ending Coke vs. Pepsi battle. Perfect for @RISK users wanting some tips and examples of simulation modeling techniques! Book comes with demonstration version of @RISK so you can follow along using the same example models in the book! SC, 226 pp.

"Makes the use of spreadsheet simulation easy and applicable to many every-day business problems. [Winston] will clearly be one of those unique and very few academic leaders that transcend the large void between theoretical teaching and practical, real world, business applications." Five stars, Amazon.com

SCHLEIFER & BELL
Make informed decisions using statistical techniques from real world cases. You'll learn how to use this existing data to facilitate planning and improve decisions. You'll also get answers to familiar questions such as 'what are good ways of describing the relationship between monthly retail sales and monthly advertising expenditures in the US?' or 'what can you conclude from a questionnaire sample on your product?'. The entire text emphasizes statistics by use of real-world practice and business examples.

One of a series titled 'Managerial Decision Analysis,' the authors have combined experience and development projects associated with Harvard Business School to present case studies involving issues, concepts and techniques you can begin using today! SC, 248 pp.

ROY L. NERSESIAN
Credit analysis is important for any bank or financial institution. Traditional credit analysis involves looking at best, worst, and most likely cases. If it sounds like this method is ripe for @RISK, you're right! This book applies Risk Analysis with @RISK 4.5 to traditional credit analysis. @RISK provides the one thing that is lacking in conventional credit analysis - the dynamism of change and its impact on the financial capacity of a borrower to repay a loan. The book is evenly split between developing the reader's ability to handle @RISK commands, and the application of these skills to analyzing a project financing model and a general corporate credit risk analysis. Other topics covered include deriving an insurance premium, buy vs. lease decisions, project evaluations, protecting a loan through hedging, market research, maximizing revenue, and determining a royalty and tax structure. The book has been successfully used in MBA courses at Columbia University. All examples covered in the book are included on disk. Anyone working in a financial institution, university, or interested in applications of Risk Analysis with @RISK will find the methods described in this book to be invaluable. SC, 250 pp.

DAVID VOSE
Risk and uncertainty are key features of most business and government problems and need to be understood for effective decisions to be made. This book describes the techniques you need for effective risk analysis. The book assumes you have basic knowledge of risk analysis (such as you would get from the @RISK manual) and builds upon that knowledge with detailed examples of proven risk analysis techniques. The author has built these techniques in over ten years of risk analysis consulting. Speaking of @RISK, this book features the world's best risk analysis software - @RISK, BestFit, and RISKview! By providing the building blocks, the author guides you through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to handle most modelling problems. Topics include basics on distributions and Monte Carlo simulation, building a risk analysis model, generating distributions from data and expert opinion, project risk analysis, times series projections, interpreting results, and more! Following the overwhelming success of the first edition, the second edition has been extensively revised and updated and will provide an invaluable practical guide for the analyst who must perform risk analysis, the decision maker who must review the results of a risk analysis, or the statistician or operations research specialist who is interested in practical applications of risk analysis. Clearly written and logically laid out, beginners and experts alike will benefit from this book. HC, 432 pp.

RAIFFA PRATT
Here is a book that shows how to apply decision analysis under uncertainty to real-world problems! The authors explain in detail the statistical theory behind decision analysis, with an emphasis on economic payoffs and risks. Learn the best ways to apply these techniques to your own decision analysis problems. Start with the basics of decision theory, including decision trees, preferences, and utility functions. Move on to random variables, sampling, and data generating processes, as well as review the value of sampling information and optimal sample sizes given budgetary restrictions. The book concludes by examining and critiquing standard decision analysis techniques. There is a lot of math in this book, so you may want to have your old calculus book on-hand. (The authors don't assume any previous training in probability or statistics, though.) Basic statistical topics covered include univariate distributions, Bayes' Theorem, the Central Limit Theory, and more. This is ideal for anyone who wants to get the most out of PrecisionTree and is excellent for people who want to combine PrecisionTree with @RISK for more detailed analyses. HC 875 pp.

ROY L. NERSESIAN
This hands-on workbook is ideal for learning how RISKOptimizer can be applied to solve a range of real-world business problems. Through examples in marketing, finance, and operations, the book helps the reader gain proficiency in developing models and applying RISKOptimizer to business situations. Topics covered include selecting advertising media, reorder points and order quantities, production and inventory control, personnel planning and pricing calls. All example files are included on disk so you can work with them directly. SC, 215 pp.

ROY L. NERSESIAN
Evolver has long been one of the most powerful optimization tools on the market. Using advanced genetic algorithm technology, Evolver is well suited to solving complex, non-linear problems that have always been beyond the reach of traditional solvers such as Excel's Solver. In this book, Roy Nersesian demonstrates Evolver's wide range of applications through twenty-three real-life cases. This book is one of the definitive resources for Evolver users and optimization practitioners in general. Topics covered include managing a stock portfolio, jobshop and production floor scheduling, production planning, curve fitting for plant loading, warehouse location planning, multi-rate shipping and inter-warehouse exchanges, assigning shipments to trucks, assigning routes to trucks and airplanes, new plant sizing and timing, pricing new products, determining royalty and tax structure, and more. All examples are included on disk for your own use. SC, 256 pp.

WAYNE L. WINSTON
Financial Models is the most in-depth book written about using @RISK, Evolver and other DecisionTools software products to solve today's complex financial problems. The applications of simulation and optimization in the book are new, novel approaches to options pricing, portfolio optimization, acquisitions modeling, VAR (value-at-risk) and more!

Financial Models features years' worth of experience in setting up and solving complicated financial problems using Microsoft?Excel?and DecisionTools software. Learn valuable analytical techniques that help you get the most out of @RISK, Evolver, PrecisionTree?and TopRank? Over 60 example problems show step-by-step how to set up and analyze each model. This is a practical, step-by-step guide that you can use immediately to build the models that you need!

The models in the book have been used at executive training classes at major corporations, including GM, NCR, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, and Bristol-Myers Squibb. All the models are included on CD-ROM along with trial versions of DecisionTools software. To read more about Financial Models, click here.

WAYNE L. WINSTON
In Decision Making Under Uncertainty with RISKOptimizer, Wayne Winston, author of Palisade's best-selling Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization, once again offers models and techniques to find the best answers to business problems affected by uncertainty. Winston harnesses the power of Microsoft Excel along with Palisade's RISKOptimizer to solve business problems in areas such as inventory management, product mix decisions, capital budgeting, scheduling and more! Using Genetic Optimization and Monte Carlo simulation, optimal answers to previously unsolvable problems are now found! Managers from any industry will reap the benefits from this book. More than 30 example models ranging from job shop & production scheduling to retirement planning and options pricing are provided on the included CD-ROM as well. A trial version of RISKOptimizer, described by PC World as "a uniquely versatile business problem-solver" and "for many business problems, the most practical power tool around", is also included with the book. To read more about Decision Making Under Uncertainty with RISKOptimizer, click here.

J.B. HARDAKER, R.B.M. HUIRNE, & G. LIEN
This book is a great introduction to risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty in agriculture. It is designed to show you how to deal with real-world risks such as production, weather, crop, livestock, pests, government, price, and market uncertainties. A balanced combination of theory and practice, the book describes the concepts of rational choice and its foundations in theories of probability and risk preference. But it also contains many examples, and has been adopted by both undergraduate and graduate programs in agricultural economics, farm management, and business. And it utilizes Palisade software, including @RISK, RISKview, and BestFit. In addition, the optimization and decision tree techniques described may be used with Evolver and PrecisionTree! SC, 332 pp.

PAUL GOODWIN & GEORGE WRIGHT
An excellent introduction to decision analysis, this book is practical, full of examples, and very well written. It is aimed at managers and administrators in both business and government organizations, and has also been adopted by many MBA programs. By gathering ideas from psychology, management science, and statistics, the authors show how difficult decisions can be tackled in a structured and defensible way. We particularly liked the user-friendly style in which the book is written, making it accessible to readers with little or no prior knowledge of management science or statistics. In developing their examples, the authors used @RISK, and PrecisionTree, and devoted entire chapters to Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees and influence diagrams, and the analytic hierarchy process! SC, 454 pp.

WAYNE L. WINSTON & S. CHRISTIAN ALBRIGHT
Used widely by MBA and other business programs, this book is a very thorough guide to formulating and solving real-world business problems through spreadsheet modeling. We liked the book's straightforward, teach-by-example approach, and we were impressed by its comprehensive coverage of issues facing business today. Chock full of examples, the book covers finance, human resources, marketing, product mix, scheduling, strategic planning, demand forecasting, operations management and more. The book uses @RISK extensively, devoting nearly 70 pages to it! It also demonstrates how to use optimization with What's Best! and Excel's Solver, using examples which may also be applied to Evolver. And, the section on decision trees may be used with PrecisionTree as well! HC, 953 pp.

"I am an Assistant Professor and review most of the new books that deal with OR/MS. None of those can even come close to the quality of this book." D. Cordova, San Juan, PR

ALBRIGHT, WINSTON, ZAPPE
Data are everywhere today. Companies compile vast amounts of data, more than most people can keep up with. But unless that data is properly analyzed for trends, patterns, or relationships, it is meaningless. Data Analysis for Managers is a very practical, clearly written book that demonstrates how to use various statistical methods to analyze data and uncover important information. Throughout the book, data analysis is emphasized in the context of making business decisions. You will not find a lot of highbrow, abstract theory in Data Analysis for Managers . Instead, you will find over 1,000 concise and plainly written case studies and exercises that cover all fields and are designed to be applied immediately to real life. And because Excel is the standard for today's business world, the book is based entirely on data analysis in Excel. The book also emphasizes the use of StatTools for statistical analysis and today's most powerful risk and decision analysis toolkit, the DecisionTools Suite! You do not need a statistics background to use this book, only a casual knowledge of Excel. Armed with StatTools, the DecisionTools Suite and this book, you will be making better decisions in no time! HC, 952 pp.

ROY L. NERSESIAN
Operations management is a set of disciplines that transform raw materials, labor, and capital into finished goods and services. The book discusses these disciplines and is aimed at executive and operations managers who want to be up-to-date on the latest methods in this critical field. Nersesian emphasizes Japanese techniques in manufacturing and other operational matters, and demonstrates how to use cutting-edge software like Evolver and RISKOptimizer to solve previously unsolvable problems in product mix, safety stock, production scheduling, and other areas. Examples using What's Best! are also included. Additional chapters examine the various disciplines that modern managers must integrate into their jobs and key workplace practices that enhance a company's competitiveness in the global marketplace. HC, 299 pp.

EDMUND H. CONROW
The second edition of Dr. Conrow's book provides more than 700 tips to succeed and traps to avoid collected over a 20+ year period of implementing and evaluating project risk management. More than just a list of ideas, it provides solid fundamentals for each risk management process step, as well as numerous organizational and behavioral considerations, that can immediately improve any risk management process. Multiple approaches are provided in numerous places to permit the reader to "pick and choose" the approach best suited for their project. Examples are also provided to help the reader better understand and immediately apply the material to their project. The book can be used by every level of practitioner from novice to expert, and help you evaluate, tailor, and implement risk management on your project. The use of probability distributions and Monte Carlo simulation is covered, and includes lessons from work for industry, government, and commercial projects.

According to Dr. Lawrence D. Pohlmann, in the January 2004 issue of International Council on Systems Engineering journal INSIGHT, "The greatly expanded content and added usability feature have effectively transformed the second edition into an advanced risk management handbook" HC 554pp.

About the author: Dr. Conrow is a risk management and project management consultant with 20+ years experience; on hardware-intensive, software-intensive, and mixed projects, with life cycle dollar ranges from several million dollars to many billion dollars. Dr. Conrow has served as a risk manager and mentor to risk managers on a number of programs, and has held long-term risk management and project management assignments where he has been responsible for making risk management work on a variety of programs. Click here for more information about Dr. Conrow's consulting services.

PAUL NEWENDORP & JOHN SCHUYLER
This is an update of the 1975 best-selling first edition, which became the standard reference in the field. The book introduces readers to ways of applying risk and decision analysis concepts to the analysis of decisions under uncertainty in petroleum exploration. The techniques and concepts introduced may be used directly in @RISK and PrecisionTree!

Decision analysis methods apply to any type of business investment decision. The emphasis in this book is on quantitative methods useful in petroleum exploration decisions. The book will be of special interest to anyone involved in the evaluation of property acquisition, geophysical surveys, and prospect drilling decisions: petroleum geologists, engineers, geophysicists and managers. A mathematical or statistical background is not required to follow the practical, applications-oriented discussions. To read more, click here. HC 618 pages.

S. CHRISTIAN ALBRIGHT
Self-contained and extremely practical, VBA for Modelers guides you in developing customized decision support systems for the important business problems you face. The book gives students and professionals the ability to integrate spreadsheet models with the power and flexibility of Microsoft Excel's Visual Basic for Applications (VBA). When used in conjunction with @RISK 4.5's extensive VBA commands library, users will gain almost unlimited control over @RISK for Excel!

The first half of the book is a helpful primer, which covers the basics of VBA including:

• Working with Excel ranges, workbooks, worksheets, and charts
• General programming concepts
• Control logic (if-then-else constructions)
• Loops, arrays, and subroutines
• The Visual Basic Editor (VBE)
• Excel's Solver add-in
• Building dialog boxes
• Debugging and error handling

• Employee scheduling
• Transportation logistics
• Capital budgeting
• Pricing American and European options
• Portfolio optimization