DANIEL M. BYRD III & C. RICHARD COTHERN
Introduction to Risk Analysis: A Systematic Approach to Science-Based Decision Making provides readers with the first comprehensive, integrated guide to developing a complete environmental risk analysis for regulated substances and processes.

Written for safety and loss-control, environmental, and quality managers, Introduction to Risk Analysis provides a practical introduction to the concepts of risk and its analysis. Unlike other books, Introduction to Risk Analysis looks at risk from a regulatory perspective, allowing both professionals in regulatory agencies concerned with risk including OSHA, EPA, USDA, DOT, FDA, and state environmental agencies. It enables professionals in any agency-regulated industry to understand and implement the methods required for proper risk assessment.

Authors Daniel M. Byrd, III, and C. Richard Cothern examine risk and the structure of analysis. Emphasizing the predictive nature of risk, they discuss the quantitative nature of risk and explore quantitative-analysis topics, including data graphing, logarithmic thinking, risk estimating, curve fitting and Monte Carlo simulation. Many of the techniques described can be implemented with @RISK and BestFit. Chapters include discussions on functions, models, and uncertainties; the regulatory process; risk assessment; exposure; dosimetry; epidemiology; toxicology; risk characterization; comparative risk assessment; ecological risk assessment; risk management; and risk communication. Six in-depth case studies, an annotated bibliography, and over 50 figures are also included. HC, 433 pp.

About the Authors: Daniel M. Byrd, III, is President of Consultants in Toxicology, Risk Assessment and Product Safety in Washington, DC. He has also worked in the Office of Chemical Control, the Office of Pesticide Programs, the Carcinogen Assessment Group, and the Science Advisory board at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. He also provides risk consulting services using @RISK.

C. Richard Cothern is a professor of Engineering Management and Chemistry at the George Washington University and a professor of Technology and Management at the University of Maryland's University College. Dr. Cothern spent 19 years with the EPA working for the Center for Environmental Statistics, the Science Advisory Board, the Offices of Drinking Water, and the Office of Pollution Prevention and Toxic Substances. Both have been professionally involved in this area for over 20 years.

JOHN SCHUYLER
Is there anything more important to the success of a project than making good decisions? Yet, few of us have had any formal training in decision making. Decision analysis is the discipline that helps people choose wisely under conditions of uncertainty. This book introduces risk and decision analysis applied to project management.

Probability is the language of uncertainty. Fortunately, a few basic concepts go a long way toward making better decisions. The evaluation calculations are straightforward, and many everyday problems can be solved with a hand calculator.

Recently we have seen heightened interest in probabilistic techniques for all types of evaluations. Shorter business cycles and increasing competition are demanding better resource management. People are learning more about value creation and how to work with uncertainty. New and evolving project management and risk software such as @RISK for Project, @RISK for Excel, PrecisionTree, and RISKOptimizer greatly help in assessing and managing risks and opportunities.

There are three major features of the decision analysis approach:

1. best judgments about risks and uncertainties are expressed as probability distributions;
2. a project model establishes the outcome value for the possible scenarios; and
3. the expected value (EV) calculation provides a probability-weighted value for decision making.

WAYNE L. WINSTON
First published in 1998, Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization quickly became one of the most widely used references for the application of simulation and optimization techniques to financial problems. Now, author Wayne Winston has done it again with a totally new volume! Financial Models II is packed with real-life examples that demonstrate how @RISK, Evolver and Excel can be used to make better financial decisions. Winston's straightforward, step-by-step approach makes his innovative techniques accessible to anyone who uses Microsoft Excel.

Like its predecessor, Financial Models II features years' worth of experience in setting up and solving complicated financial problems using Microsoft Excel and DecisionTools software. You will learn valuable analytical techniques that will help you get the most out of @RISK, Evolver, and Excel. A wide variety of financial examples are presented and solved step-by-step in over 65 chapters. This isn't a book of long-winded theoretical discussions. It's a practical, step-by-step guide that you can use immediately to build the models that you need! Click here to read more about Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization.

ERIK UYTTEWAAL
Dynamic Scheduling with Microsoft?Office Project 2003: The Book By and For Professionals, is based on the cumulative experience of the author, his clients, and other instructors, and includes insights from numerous other professionals who have used MS Office Project successfully. This unique guide gives a complete picture of how to achieve the best results with Microsoft Project.

This fully revised new edition of Eric Uyttewaal's best-selling book does more than describe the features of Microsoft Project. The author recommends certain features and argues against others - giving you a complete picture of how to use Microsoft Office Project 2003 to build a dynamic schedule that meets your need, not just once, but continuously. SC 575 pp.

Key features:

• Fully aligned with the PMBOK 2004 edition
• Teaches how to build dynamic, easy-to-maintain project models
• Provides a checklist for good models of your project
• Provides many helpful screen illustrations, diagrams, stories, cartoons, review questions, case studies, and hands-on exercises to help make the learning process easy for all user levels
• An excellent companion for @RISK for Project users!

S. CHRISTIAN ALBRIGHT
Palisade's StatTools software brings unprecedented statistical power to Microsoft Excel. By combining robust statistical procedures, Excel's ease-of-use, and customization capabilities, StatTools sets a new standard in statistical analysis. Learning Statistics with StatTools is written to help you get the most out of StatTools in a practical, straightforward manner.

Much more than a software reference manual, this book shows you how to apply statistics to problems you face. Each chapter discusses a logically grouped set of statistical procedures, grouped as they are in the StatTools menu structure. The author illustrates each procedure with a representative data set, explaining how StatTools can be used to analyze the data in an appropriate way. He even discusses the meaning of the StatTools output, just for those of you who need a refresher in basic statistics. After many of the sections, additional notes are provided about alternative StatTools possibilities or statistical details. Click here to read more about this book.

ROY L. NERSESIAN
In Corporate Financial Risk Management, Roy L. Nersesian provides a straightforward, business-focused guide to understanding, modeling, and dealing with risk. The book provides real-world examples that use Microsoft Excel and Palisade's @RISK for Excel, BestFit, and RISKOptimizer to model complex and highly uncertain business situations.

Risk factors beyond management control may mean the difference between profitability and financial catastrophe. The book provides strategies for dealing with day to day uncertainties of commodity pricing, currency exchange rates, borrowing interest rates, and the weather. Detailed examples of project financing, new product development, and price and sales volume variations are used as illustrations.

In most businesses risk analysis is assigned to specialists with advanced training and complex tools. Corporate Financial Risk Management opens up the field to anyone with moderate analysis and computer skills.

The book culminates with a novel cost-benefit analysis technique for modeling swaps (a contracted price stabilization technique) as well as the use of insurance as a substitute for swaps. The use and power of Palisade's @RISK for Excel, RISKOptimizer, and BestFit applications are well demonstrated and documented.

Written for anyone charged with analyzing the economic opportunities and consequences associated with uncertain situations, Corporate Financial Risk Management provides readers with solid tactics, processes, and tools for analyzing, managing, and profiting from financial risk. HC 223pp

J. DAVIDSON FRAME
Managing Risk in Organizations offers a proven framework for handling risks across all types of organizations. In this comprehensive resource, David Frame?a leading expert in risk management?examines the risks routinely encountered in business, offers prescriptions to assess the effects of various risks, and shows how to develop effective strategies to cope with risks. In addition, the book is filled with practical tools and techniques used by professional risk practitioners that can be readily applied by project managers, financial managers, and any manager or consultant who deals with risk within an organization. Managing Risk in Organizations is filled with illustrative case studies and:

• Outlines the various types of risk: pure, operational, project, technical, business, and political
• Reveals what risk management can and cannot accomplish
• Shows how to organize risk management efforts to conduct risk assessments, manage crises, and recover from disasters
• Includes a systematic risk management process: risk management planning, risk identification, qualitative impact analysis, quantitative impact analysis, risk response planning, and monitoring control
• Provides quantitative and qualitative tools to identify and handle risks
• This much-needed book will enable organizations to take risk seriously and act proactively.

PAUL R. GARVEY, The MITRE Corporation
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis; A Systems Engineering Perspective offers a careful blend of theory and practice, providing a comprehensive approach for assessing the impact of unplanned events on the cost of engineering modern complex systems.

Containing over 700 references, equations, and illustrations, and providing more than 100 theoretical and applied exercises, Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis is suitable for cost, quality, reliability, and industrial engineers; systems engineers; cost and operations research analysts; management scientists; project and production engineers; engineering managers; and an extraordinary text for upper-level undergraduate and graduate students in these disciplines.

PAUL R. GARVEY is Chief Scientist for the Economic and Decision Analysis Center at The MITRE Corporation. He is the author of numerous technical papers, and book chapters, on cost uncertainty analysis and the application of decision theory methods to problems in risk management.

TED KLASTORIN
Project Management: Tools and Trade-offs presents the fundamental concepts of project management in a concise fashion with an emphasis on the difficult tradeoffs that must be made by project managers. The author describes analytical tools and project management methodologies and shows how to apply these tools and methodologies to realistic problems. The book:

- Offers a unique balance of theory and practice, with emphasis on the uncertain, risky projects that managers face every day,
 - Takes an analytical and applied approach,
- Includes Excel templates for all models described in the book on an accompanying disk.