By Paul Newendorp and John Schuyler
This
is an update of the 1975 best-selling first edition, which became the standard reference
in the field. The book introduces readers to ways of applying risk and decision analysis
concepts to the analysis of decisions under uncertainty in petroleum exploration. The
techniques and concepts introduced may be used directly in @RISK and PrecisionTree!
Topics covered in the book represent a composite of evaluation practices and problem-solving approaches used throughout the world. Several ideas and concepts were first published in the first edition.
Decision analysis methods apply to any type of business investment decision. The emphasis in this book is on quantitative methods useful in petroleum exploration decisions. The book will be of special interest to anyone involved in the evaluation of property acquisition, geophysical surveys, and prospect drilling decisions: petroleum geologists, engineers, geophysicists and managers. A mathematical or statistical background is not required to follow the practical, applications-oriented discussions.
The book first reviews the advantages and disadvantages of various profitability criteria used for selecting and comparing drilling prospects. The important expected value concept is next introduced. This decision criterion recognises judgments about risks and uncertainties expresses as probabilities. Expected value is the cornerstone of formal, quantitative analysis of decision making under uncertainty. Included in the this discussion about expected value are chapters on the formulation and solution of decision trees, Monte Carlo simulation, and risk policy using utility theory.
The remainder of the book is devoted to decision modelling: determining the possible outcomes and their probabilities for decisions made under conditions of uncertainty. Throughout the book, numerous real-world exploration examples are presented to illustrate how risk and decision analysis methods are applied.
A feature of the book is a case study entitled "The Blackduck Prospect." This three-part series is a dialogue between various executives trying to decide whether to drill an exploratory well on newly acquired acreage. The book also contains references for further reading and a glossary of terms.
About the authors
Paul D. Newendorp
Paul began his career in 1959 as a petroleum engineer for Pan American Petroleum Corporation
(later Amoco Production Company). During two later educational leaves of absence
he completed his MS and Doctorate degrees in Petroleum Engineering from the University
of Oklahoma. In 1968, he developed a two-week short course on petroleum exploration
economics and risk analysis. The course was based, in part, on his Doctoral research
on decision theory and earlier industry experience.
For the next 21 years, Paul traveled throughout the world teaching his short course. Entitled "Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration," the course introduced many concepts into the lexicon and accepted practice for analysing drilling prospects. Included was his pioneering work on the use of Monte Carlo simulation for the quantification of exploration risks and uncertainties. His course, research, and numerous publications also brought into focus how established decision theory methods such as the expected value concept, decision tree analysis, and utility theory can be used to advantage in evaluating drilling prospects. The original edition of this book was written in 1975 for use as a text for his course.
During his career, Paul was an active member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. He served in various leadership roles and received numerous awards, including the SPE Section Service Award. In 1987-88 he was appointed an SPE Distinguished Lecturer. He was also an associate member of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists.
He retired in 1989 and now lives in Colorado. His retirement activities include work as a volunteer for the U.S. Forest Service and for Rocky Mountain National Park.
John R. Schuyler
John trains and assists clients in risk and economic decision analysis. He established
an independent training and consulting practice in 1988, focusing on project and
corporate economic modelling and on decision policy. He has presented over 150 short
courses in 22 countries.
He has over 25 years of business experience in training, consulting, analysis, and management. His industry experience has been greatest in the petroleum industry, but also includes finance, mining, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and government.
John's short courses deal with business strategy, engineering design, and capital investment decisions under conditions of uncertainty. He has presented his petroleum industry courses for over 10 years in association with Oil & Gas Consultants International (OGCI).
His previous work experience includes:
Six years as
VP and petroleum evaluation engineer for Security Pacific Bank (then the 6th largest
U.S. bank).
Manager - Business
Systems for Cities Service Co.'s $600 million Petrochemicals Division.
Senior Management
Consultant with a national CPA firm.
Planning and
Evaluation Analyst for Cities Service Oil Company.
VP - Administration,
CFO, and co-founder of a small commercial products company.
His certification include: Certified Administrative Manager (CAM), Certified Cost Engineer (CCE), Certified Management Accountant (CMA), Certified Management Consultant (CMC), Certified in Production and Inventory Management (CPIM), Professional Engineer (PE, Colorado), Project Management Professional (PMP)
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