Books - Phil Science, Inc.

Decision Analysis Books


	Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools
	ROBERT T. CLEMEN & TERENCE REILLY This straightforward book teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis using the DecisionTools Suite. It is well-written, well-organized, and full of case studies and examples. Not surprisingly, it is the leading text in the field of decision analysis, and is used widely by both students and practitioners alike. And, it is chock full of instruction on how to use each of the tools in the DecisionTools Suite - @RISK, PrecisionTree, TopRank, BestFit, and RISKview - to solve real-world problems. Case studies include toxic chemicals and the EPA, new product decisions, investing in the stock market, assessing cancer risk, earthquake prediction, choosing a manufacturing process, life insurance, and mining investments to name a few. The book emphasizes the practical application of decision analysis without overly technical mathematical explanations. The authors goal in writing the book is to improve your decision-making skills through the proper use of decision-making tools and techniques. Palisade strongly recommends this book an excellent instructional source to help you model and analyze real-world problems - including risk - using the techniques of decision analysis. HC 768 pp. 밄est qualities of the book: clarity, good structure, interesting real or realistic fictitious case studies - extremely important to keep the student interested in a topic which other books present in a dry way and with just 'toy' problems.??Ileana Costea, Ph.D. Professor of Engineering, California State University, Northridge
	가격: 160,000원 *. 소프트웨어와 같이 주문할 경우의 가격 서적만 따로 주문하는 경우 운임 60,000원이 추가됨

	Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory
	RAIFFA PRATT Here is a book that shows how to apply decision analysis under uncertainty to real-world problems! The authors explain in detail the statistical theory behind decision analysis, with an emphasis on economic payoffs and risks. Learn the best ways to apply these techniques to your own decision analysis problems. Start with the basics of decision theory, including decision trees, preferences, and utility functions. Move on to random variables, sampling, and data generating processes, as well as review the value of sampling information and optimal sample sizes given budgetary restrictions. The book concludes by examining and critiquing standard decision analysis techniques. There is a lot of math in this book, so you may want to have your old calculus book on-hand. (The authors don't assume any previous training in probability or statistics, though.) Basic statistical topics covered include univariate distributions, Bayes' Theorem, the Central Limit Theory, and more. This is ideal for anyone who wants to get the most out of PrecisionTree and is excellent for people who want to combine PrecisionTree with @RISK for more detailed analyses. HC 875 pp.
	가격: 155,000원 *. 소프트웨어와 같이 주문할 경우의 가격 서적만 따로 주문하는 경우 운임 60,000원이 추가됨

	Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, 3rd Ed.
	PAUL GOODWIN & GEORGE WRIGHT An excellent introduction to decision analysis, this book is practical, full of examples, and very well written. It is aimed at managers and administrators in both business and government organizations, and has also been adopted by many MBA programs. By gathering ideas from psychology, management science, and statistics, the authors show how difficult decisions can be tackled in a structured and defensible way. We particularly liked the user-friendly style in which the book is written, making it accessible to readers with little or no prior knowledge of management science or statistics. In developing their examples, the authors used @RISK, and PrecisionTree, and devoted entire chapters to Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees and influence diagrams, and the analytic hierarchy process! SC, 454 pp.
	가격: 99,950원 *. 소프트웨어와 같이 주문할 경우의 가격 서적만 따로 주문하는 경우 운임 60,000원이 추가됨

	Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration, 2nd Ed.
	PAUL NEWENDORP & JOHN SCHUYLER This is an update of the 1975 best-selling first edition, which became the standard reference in the field. The book introduces readers to ways of applying risk and decision analysis concepts to the analysis of decisions under uncertainty in petroleum exploration. The techniques and concepts introduced may be used directly in @RISK and PrecisionTree! Decision analysis methods apply to any type of business investment decision. The emphasis in this book is on quantitative methods useful in petroleum exploration decisions. The book will be of special interest to anyone involved in the evaluation of property acquisition, geophysical surveys, and prospect drilling decisions: petroleum geologists, engineers, geophysicists and managers. A mathematical or statistical background is not required to follow the practical, applications-oriented discussions. To read more, click here. HC 618 pages.
	가격: 110,000원 *. 소프트웨어와 같이 주문할 경우의 가격 서적만 따로 주문하는 경우 운임 60,000원이 추가됨