AVERILL M. LAW & DAVID KELTON
An essential reference source, this book is intended for those more mathematically inclined. Ever wonder about how random numbers are generated? This book gives you the nitty gritty on random number generators and algorithms for generating a wide variety of random variates. There is material useful for @RISK and BestFit users, specifically on selecting input probability distributions. Amidst all the math, there are many graphs to visualize the various distributions. There's also a discussion of independence/dependence, and a section on fitting actual data to probability distributions. With over 700 pages, this book contains a wealth of information on simulation modeling that would be appropriate for those interested in risk analysis or system dynamics. HC, 784 pp.

C. VAUGHN JONES
Concept and practice come together nicely in this well written discussion of financial risk associated with investment in big construction projects. The author used @RISK extensively to carry out his analyses and strongly advocates the use of simulation. A must for those of you working directly in utilities and water resource projects. We also highly recommend it for others who are working with financial/economic analysis for very large projects (where the risk cannot be easily diversified through standard portfolio methods). The author has successfully brought together material from business, engineering, economics, demography, probability theory, computer simulation, and policy. This book convincingly shows by example how traditional deterministic analysis can be dangerously misleading. HC, 153 pp

JAMES MURTHA
A great extension of Murtha's highly successful seminars on the use of @RISK in the petroleum industry. You start here with 2 chapters to get up to speed on the philosophy of risk analysis and the requisite principles in probability, statistics, and Monte Carlo simulation. Following are the basic steps you'd take to actually build, run, and interpret results for a real risk analysis model in @RISK. To make it as hands-on as possible, Murtha includes lots of petroleum examples - an accompanying disk includes all these examples pre-built in Excel worksheets. Volumetric reserves, exponential decline, porosity and water saturation, waterflood prospect, and competitive bidding are some of the examples. This is a rare offering in that you'll learn about the concepts of risk analysis while also getting some very solid hands-on experience with risk analysis modeling in @RISK 4.5. To read more about Decisions Involving Uncertainty, click here. SC, 150 pp

WAYNE L. WINSTON
A straight-forward user guide to @RISK. This new book teaches basic concepts of simulation modeling using @RISK through a variety of examples from operations research, finance, marketing research, and accounting. These examples are accompanied by Excel and 1-2-3 @RISK models that clearly illustrate the concepts presented. You'll see how to use simulation to solve problems such as figuring an optimal bid, option pricing, market share analysis and inventory analysis. You can even simulate the never-ending Coke vs. Pepsi battle. Perfect for @RISK users wanting some tips and examples of simulation modeling techniques! Book comes with demonstration version of @RISK so you can follow along using the same example models in the book! SC, 226 pp.

“Makes the use of spreadsheet simulation easy and applicable to many every-day business problems. [Winston] will clearly be one of those unique and very few academic leaders that transcend the large void between theoretical teaching and practical, real world, business applications.??Five stars, Amazon.com

ROY L. NERSESIAN
Credit analysis is important for any bank or financial institution. Traditional credit analysis involves looking at best, worst, and most likely cases. If it sounds like this method is ripe for @RISK, you're right! This book applies Risk Analysis with @RISK 4.5 to traditional credit analysis. @RISK provides the one thing that is lacking in conventional credit analysis - the dynamism of change and its impact on the financial capacity of a borrower to repay a loan. The book is evenly split between developing the reader's ability to handle @RISK commands, and the application of these skills to analyzing a project financing model and a general corporate credit risk analysis. Other topics covered include deriving an insurance premium, buy vs. lease decisions, project evaluations, protecting a loan through hedging, market research, maximizing revenue, and determining a royalty and tax structure. The book has been successfully used in MBA courses at Columbia University. All examples covered in the book are included on disk. Anyone working in a financial institution, university, or interested in applications of Risk Analysis with @RISK will find the methods described in this book to be invaluable. SC, 250 pp.

DAVID VOSE
Risk and uncertainty are key features of most business and government problems and need to be understood for effective decisions to be made. This book describes the techniques you need for effective risk analysis. The book assumes you have basic knowledge of risk analysis (such as you would get from the @RISK manual) and builds upon that knowledge with detailed examples of proven risk analysis techniques. The author has built these techniques in over ten years of risk analysis consulting. Speaking of @RISK, this book features the world's best risk analysis software - @RISK, BestFit, and RISKview! By providing the building blocks, the author guides you through the necessary steps to produce an accurate risk analysis model and offers general and specific techniques to handle most modelling problems. Topics include basics on distributions and Monte Carlo simulation, building a risk analysis model, generating distributions from data and expert opinion, project risk analysis, times series projections, interpreting results, and more! Following the overwhelming success of the first edition, the second edition has been extensively revised and updated and will provide an invaluable practical guide for the analyst who must perform risk analysis, the decision maker who must review the results of a risk analysis, or the statistician or operations research specialist who is interested in practical applications of risk analysis. Clearly written and logically laid out, beginners and experts alike will benefit from this book. HC, 432 pp.

WAYNE L. WINSTON
Financial Models is the most in-depth book written about using @RISK, Evolver and other DecisionTools software products to solve today's complex financial problems. The applications of simulation and optimization in the book are new, novel approaches to options pricing, portfolio optimization, acquisitions modeling, VAR (value-at-risk) and more!

Financial Models features years' worth of experience in setting up and solving complicated financial problems using Microsoft?Excel?and DecisionTools software. Learn valuable analytical techniques that help you get the most out of @RISK, Evolver, PrecisionTree?and TopRank? Over 60 example problems show step-by-step how to set up and analyze each model. This is a practical, step-by-step guide that you can use immediately to build the models that you need!

The models in the book have been used at executive training classes at major corporations, including GM, NCR, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, and Bristol-Myers Squibb. All the models are included on CD-ROM along with trial versions of DecisionTools software. To read more about Financial Models, click here.

WAYNE L. WINSTON
In Decision Making Under Uncertainty with RISKOptimizer, Wayne Winston, author of Palisade's best-selling Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization, once again offers models and techniques to find the best answers to business problems affected by uncertainty. Winston harnesses the power of Microsoft Excel along with Palisade's RISKOptimizer to solve business problems in areas such as inventory management, product mix decisions, capital budgeting, scheduling and more! Using Genetic Optimization and Monte Carlo simulation, optimal answers to previously unsolvable problems are now found! Managers from any industry will reap the benefits from this book. More than 30 example models ranging from job shop & production scheduling to retirement planning and options pricing are provided on the included CD-ROM as well. A trial version of RISKOptimizer, described by PC World as "a uniquely versatile business problem-solver" and "for many business problems, the most practical power tool around", is also included with the book. To read more about Decision Making Under Uncertainty with RISKOptimizer, click here.

J.B. HARDAKER, R.B.M. HUIRNE, & G. LIEN
This book is a great introduction to risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty in agriculture. It is designed to show you how to deal with real-world risks such as production, weather, crop, livestock, pests, government, price, and market uncertainties. A balanced combination of theory and practice, the book describes the concepts of rational choice and its foundations in theories of probability and risk preference. But it also contains many examples, and has been adopted by both undergraduate and graduate programs in agricultural economics, farm management, and business. And it utilizes Palisade software, including @RISK, RISKview, and BestFit. In addition, the optimization and decision tree techniques described may be used with Evolver and PrecisionTree! SC, 332 pp.

WAYNE L. WINSTON & S. CHRISTIAN ALBRIGHT
Used widely by MBA and other business programs, this book is a very thorough guide to formulating and solving real-world business problems through spreadsheet modeling. We liked the book's straightforward, teach-by-example approach, and we were impressed by its comprehensive coverage of issues facing business today. Chock full of examples, the book covers finance, human resources, marketing, product mix, scheduling, strategic planning, demand forecasting, operations management and more. The book uses @RISK extensively, devoting nearly 70 pages to it! It also demonstrates how to use optimization with What'sBest! and Excel's Solver, using examples which may also be applied to Evolver. And, the section on decision trees may be used with PrecisionTree as well! HC, 953 pp.

“I am an Assistant Professor and review most of the new books that deal with OR/MS. None of those can even come close to the quality of this book.??D. Cordova, San Juan, PR

EDMUND H. CONROW
The second edition of Dr. Conrow's book provides more than 700 tips to succeed and traps to avoid collected over a 20+ year period of implementing and evaluating project risk management. More than just a list of ideas, it provides solid fundamentals for each risk management process step, as well as numerous organizational and behavioral considerations, that can immediately improve any risk management process. Multiple approaches are provided in numerous places to permit the reader to "pick and choose" the approach best suited for their project. Examples are also provided to help the reader better understand and immediately apply the material to their project. The book can be used by every level of practitioner from novice to expert, and help you evaluate, tailor, and implement risk management on your project. The use of probability distributions and Monte Carlo simulation is covered, and includes lessons from work for industry, government, and commercial projects.

According to Dr. Lawrence D. Pohlmann, in the January 2004 issue of International Council on Systems Engineering journal INSIGHT, “The greatly expanded content and added usability feature have effectively transformed the second edition into an advanced risk management handbook? HC 554pp.

About the author: Dr. Conrow is a risk management and project management consultant with 20+ years experience; on hardware-intensive, software-intensive, and mixed projects, with life cycle dollar ranges from several million dollars to many billion dollars. Dr. Conrow has served as a risk manager and mentor to risk managers on a number of programs, and has held long-term risk management and project management assignments where he has been responsible for making risk management work on a variety of programs. Click here for more information about Dr. Conrow's consulting services.

DANIEL M. BYRD III & C. RICHARD COTHERN
Introduction to Risk Analysis: A Systematic Approach to Science-Based Decision Making provides readers with the first comprehensive, integrated guide to developing a complete environmental risk analysis for regulated substances and processes.

Written for safety and loss-control, environmental, and quality managers, Introduction to Risk Analysis provides a practical introduction to the concepts of risk and its analysis. Unlike other books, Introduction to Risk Analysis looks at risk from a regulatory perspective, allowing both professionals in regulatory agencies concerned with risk including OSHA, EPA, USDA, DOT, FDA, and state environmental agencies. It enables professionals in any agency-regulated industry to understand and implement the methods required for proper risk assessment.

Authors Daniel M. Byrd, III, and C. Richard Cothern examine risk and the structure of analysis. Emphasizing the predictive nature of risk, they discuss the quantitative nature of risk and explore quantitative-analysis topics, including data graphing, logarithmic thinking, risk estimating, curve fitting and Monte Carlo simulation. Many of the techniques described can be implemented with @RISK and BestFit. Chapters include discussions on functions, models, and uncertainties; the regulatory process; risk assessment; exposure; dosimetry; epidemiology; toxicology; risk characterization; comparative risk assessment; ecological risk assessment; risk management; and risk communication. Six in-depth case studies, an annotated bibliography, and over 50 figures are also included. HC, 433 pp.

About the Authors: Daniel M. Byrd, III, is President of Consultants in Toxicology, Risk Assessment and Product Safety in Washington, DC. He has also worked in the Office of Chemical Control, the Office of Pesticide Programs, the Carcinogen Assessment Group, and the Science Advisory board at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. He also provides risk consulting services using @RISK.

C. Richard Cothern is a professor of Engineering Management and Chemistry at the George Washington University and a professor of Technology and Management at the University of Maryland's University College. Dr. Cothern spent 19 years with the EPA working for the Center for Environmental Statistics, the Science Advisory Board, the Offices of Drinking Water, and the Office of Pollution Prevention and Toxic Substances. Both have been professionally involved in this area for over 20 years.

JOHN M. CAMPBELL, JR., JOHN M. CAMPBELL, SR., & ROBERT A. CAMPBELL
The rapidly growing area of formal risk assessment and management challenges those making investment decisions to approach the problem differently. Multiple texts document the tools and methodology of formal risk assessment quite successfully. This book addresses the broader issue of integrating modern risk methods with financial engineering and modern decision sciences to develop a logical, orderly decision process, suitable for individuals or large organizations. The discussion treats formal risk and optimization methods within a holistic framework of decision-making, allowing the reader to understand that the process and metrics for valuing investment opportunities varies significantly between individual projects, business units or assets, and the enterprise.

Many DecisionTools techniques are implemented throughout the book, including Monte Carlo simulation, optimization, optimization with simulation, and decision trees. The book is full of discussions of how these techniques are applied to investment decisions. Concepts and examples discussed can be used directly with @RISK, Evolver, RISKOptimizer, and PrecisionTree.

The book provides an excellent reference for those familiar with risk and optimization concepts, by including detailed examples of actual applications to real world projects, from simple decisions to multibillion dollar international applications. Though the concepts and techniques discussed are applicable to and intended for any investment situation, examples include those from the petroleum industry. Those new to the subject discover enough information to understand the power of the modern approaches, with enough insight into the language and practice of risk to move on to more detailed texts. Managers responsible for designing and implementing investment decision processes in their organization will find the lessons invaluable. HC, 485 pp.

JOHN SCHUYLER
Is there anything more important to the success of a project than making good decisions? Yet, few of us have had any formal training in decision making. Decision analysis is the discipline that helps people choose wisely under conditions of uncertainty. This book introduces risk and decision analysis applied to project management.

Probability is the language of uncertainty. Fortunately, a few basic concepts go a long way toward making better decisions. The evaluation calculations are straightforward, and many everyday problems can be solved with a hand calculator.

Recently we have seen heightened interest in probabilistic techniques for all types of evaluations. Shorter business cycles and increasing competition are demanding better resource management. People are learning more about value creation and how to work with uncertainty. New and evolving project management and risk software such as @RISK for Project, @RISK for Excel, PrecisionTree, and RISKOptimizer greatly help in assessing and managing risks and opportunities.

There are three major features of the decision analysis approach:

1. best judgments about risks and uncertainties are expressed as probability distributions;
2. a project model establishes the outcome value for the possible scenarios; and
3. the expected value (EV) calculation provides a probability-weighted value for decision making.

WAYNE L. WINSTON
First published in 1998, Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization quickly became one of the most widely used references for the application of simulation and optimization techniques to financial problems. Now, author Wayne Winston has done it again with a totally new volume! Financial Models II is packed with real-life examples that demonstrate how @RISK, Evolver and Excel can be used to make better financial decisions. Winston's straightforward, step-by-step approach makes his innovative techniques accessible to anyone who uses Microsoft Excel.

Like its predecessor, Financial Models II features years' worth of experience in setting up and solving complicated financial problems using Microsoft Excel and DecisionTools software. You will learn valuable analytical techniques that will help you get the most out of @RISK, Evolver, and Excel. A wide variety of financial examples are presented and solved step-by-step in over 65 chapters. This isn't a book of long-winded theoretical discussions. It's a practical, step-by-step guide that you can use immediately to build the models that you need! Click here to read more about Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization.

ERIK UYTTEWAAL
Dynamic Scheduling with Microsoft?Office Project 2003: The Book By and For Professionals, is based on the cumulative experience of the author, his clients, and other instructors, and includes insights from numerous other professionals who have used MS Office Project successfully. This unique guide gives a complete picture of how to achieve the best results with Microsoft Project.

This fully revised new edition of Eric Uyttewaal's best-selling book does more than describe the features of Microsoft Project. The author recommends certain features and argues against others - giving you a complete picture of how to use Microsoft Office Project 2003 to build a dynamic schedule that meets your need, not just once, but continuously. SC 575 pp.

Key features:

• Fully aligned with the PMBOK 2004 edition
• Teaches how to build dynamic, easy-to-maintain project models
• Provides a checklist for good models of your project
• Provides many helpful screen illustrations, diagrams, stories, cartoons, review questions, case studies, and hands-on exercises to help make the learning process easy for all user levels
• An excellent companion for @RISK for Project users!

ROY L. NERSESIAN
In Corporate Financial Risk Management, Roy L. Nersesian provides a straightforward, business-focused guide to understanding, modeling, and dealing with risk. The book provides real-world examples that use Microsoft Excel and Palisade’s @RISK for Excel, BestFit, and RISKOptimizer to model complex and highly uncertain business situations.

Risk factors beyond management control may mean the difference between profitability and financial catastrophe. The book provides strategies for dealing with day to day uncertainties of commodity pricing, currency exchange rates, borrowing interest rates, and the weather. Detailed examples of project financing, new product development, and price and sales volume variations are used as illustrations.

In most businesses risk analysis is assigned to specialists with advanced training and complex tools. Corporate Financial Risk Management opens up the field to anyone with moderate analysis and computer skills.

The book culminates with a novel cost-benefit analysis technique for modeling swaps (a contracted price stabilization technique) as well as the use of insurance as a substitute for swaps. The use and power of Palisade’s @RISK for Excel, RISKOptimizer, and BestFit applications are well demonstrated and documented.

Written for anyone charged with analyzing the economic opportunities and consequences associated with uncertain situations, Corporate Financial Risk Management provides readers with solid tactics, processes, and tools for analyzing, managing, and profiting from financial risk. HC 223pp

J. DAVIDSON FRAME
Managing Risk in Organizations offers a proven framework for handling risks across all types of organizations. In this comprehensive resource, David Frame?a leading expert in risk management?examines the risks routinely encountered in business, offers prescriptions to assess the effects of various risks, and shows how to develop effective strategies to cope with risks. In addition, the book is filled with practical tools and techniques used by professional risk practitioners that can be readily applied by project managers, financial managers, and any manager or consultant who deals with risk within an organization. Managing Risk in Organizations is filled with illustrative case studies and:

• Outlines the various types of risk: pure, operational, project, technical, business, and political
• Reveals what risk management can and cannot accomplish
• Shows how to organize risk management efforts to conduct risk assessments, manage crises, and recover from disasters
• Includes a systematic risk management process: risk management planning, risk identification, qualitative impact analysis, quantitative impact analysis, risk response planning, and monitoring control
• Provides quantitative and qualitative tools to identify and handle risks
• This much-needed book will enable organizations to take risk seriously and act proactively.

PAUL R. GARVEY, The MITRE Corporation
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis; A Systems Engineering Perspective offers a careful blend of theory and practice, providing a comprehensive approach for assessing the impact of unplanned events on the cost of engineering modern complex systems.

Containing over 700 references, equations, and illustrations, and providing more than 100 theoretical and applied exercises, Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis is suitable for cost, quality, reliability, and industrial engineers; systems engineers; cost and operations research analysts; management scientists; project and production engineers; engineering managers; and an extraordinary text for upper-level undergraduate and graduate students in these disciplines.

PAUL R. GARVEY is Chief Scientist for the Economic and Decision Analysis Center at The MITRE Corporation. He is the author of numerous technical papers, and book chapters, on cost uncertainty analysis and the application of decision theory methods to problems in risk management.