Fit Your Data to the Best Distribution... in Seconds!
New BestFit 4.5 is the latest release of the world's
most popular distribution fitting software! BestFit 4.5 is available as a stand-alone
programme or fully integrated with @RISK 4.5. Using advanced fitting algorithms,
BestFit finds the distribution curve which best describes your data set. An Office-compatible
interface, dazzling graphics, and capacity for larger data sets makes BestFit 4.5
the choice for professionals everywhere.
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BestFit's graphic overlays and statistics
allow you to easily compare fit results. |
| "BestFit is a really solid distribution
selector, and @RISK is a good backbone for the qualitative and quantitative
work I perform. I like the flexibility." Bruce Siegel, Engineering and Business Process Consultant |
About BestFit
BestFit is a Windows programme which finds the distribution that best fits your data.
Simply import your data set into BestFit and click the Run Fit button. BestFit tests
up to 27 different distribution types to find the best fit for your data. You can
display results as presentation-quality graphs, or generate a full statistical report.
Automatic goodness of fit testing will show you at a glance the accuracy of BestFit's
answers. BestFit 4.5 is available as a stand-alone programme or fully integrated
with every copy of @RISK 4.5 Professional and Industrial, the risk analysis and simulation
add-in for Excel.
BestFit in Industry
Who should use BestFit? Anyone who works with data can use BestFit. Apply it to business
situations such as actuarial or claims adjustment, or to science and engineering
problems such as oil well drilling or time between events. You can import data from
your spreadsheet and export the results as graphic files to your report or presentation.
So why fit distributions to data? Because if you don't (or if you select the wrong distribution), any analysis you run could have serious errors that can cost you time and money. If your data was generated by a random process, you'll get the best modelling results possible by accurately describing that process. And the best way to do that is with a fitted probability distribution.
Using BestFit
How easy is BestFit to use? There are two basic steps:
Step 1: Bring in Your Data
BestFit can take data in three formats: sample, density, or cumulative. How much data?
Up to 100,000 data points! You can have BestFit read in data from a text file, enter
data by hand, or cut and paste data from any Windows application. You can fit data
from the results of an @RISK 4.5 simulation simply by choosing the Fit command from
the Explorer list pop-up menu in the @RISK Results Window.
Do you keep your data in Excel? When using BestFit integrated with @RISK, simply highlight your data set in Excel, right click, and choose Fit Distributions to Data from the pop-up menu. This links your data range directly to BestFit. When the data in your spreadsheet changes, BestFit updates your fits automatically!
Step 2: Click the Run Fit Button
Start fitting using default settings by clicking the Run Fit button on the BestFit
toolbar. BestFit tests up to 27 continuous and discrete distributions to determine
which distribution best fits your data.
BestFit determines the optimal parameters for each distribution, performing three standard tests to determine the goodness of fit: Chi-squared, Anderson-Darling (A-D) and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S). When BestFit is finished, the distributions fit are listed in order of goodness of fit.
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BestFit 4.5's Distribution Palette
makes choosing your distributions a snap! |
View, Edit and Draw Distributions
BestFit features a Distribution Viewing window that allows you to preview and edit
37 different continuous and discrete distribution functions. Not sure what a particular
distribution looks like? Just select it from the drop-down menu and instantly see
a graph of the distribution. Type in desired parameters or adjust them with spin
buttons, and watch the graph update as you change parameter!
New BestFit 4.5 also features a pop-up Distribution Palette with thumbnail pictures
of all available distribution types. Just click on the thumbnail you wish to use. Choosing
distributions couldn't be easier!
BestFit 4.5 now supports alternate parameters for your distributions. There may be
instances where you wish to use a particular distribution function, but you don't have
enough information to determine the parameters for that distribution. For example,
from experience you may know that a normal distribution best describes the net pay
of an oil reservoir, but you don't have enough information about the field to know
what the mean and standard deviation of the distribution may be. You can now enter
those percentile values directly, giving you even greater modelling flexibility. For
example, you can use survey or historical data to estimate the 10th and 90th percentiles
of a normal distribution instead of guessing at the mean and standard deviation. You
can even use a combination of standard and percentile parameters.
BestFit also features a Distribution Artist to let you draw distribution curves freehand with your mouse. In the absence of data, this is a very powerful feature. Simply enter a minimum and maximum value, then use the mouse to sketch your curve in between. Stretch the curve up or down at any point when you want to change its shape. A smoothing function helps those shaky hands. Done with your newly created masterpiece? BestFit changes your drawn curve to a General function.
BestFit can also calculate the standard distribution type and parameter values that "fit" your
curve the best! All you have to do is click the Fit Curve button in the BestFit toolbar
and use the resulting distribution function in your model!
 Fits
to sample, density, or cumulative data Takes
data from text files, other Windows applications, Excel, or @RISK Input
up to 100,000 data points or pairs Direct
link to spreadsheet data in Microsoft Excel for automatic updating
of fits Direct
link to @RISK functions for automatic updating Filtering
to remove outliers from data Fits
to 27 available distribution functions Parameter
selection using maximum-likelihood estimators and method of least
squares Uses
three goodness of fit tests: Chi-square, Anderson-Darling, and Komolgorov-Smirnov Complete
statistics report, including goodness of fit, confidence levels,
percentile and target values |
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BestFit fits to standard distribution
types or predefined distributions you enter. |
| BetaGeneral Binomial Chi-Square Error Function Erlang Exponential Extreme Value Gamma Geometric Hypergeometric |
Inverse Gaussian IntUniform Logistic Log-Logistic Lognormal Lognormal2 Negative Binomial Normal Pareto Pareto2 |
Pearson Type V Pearson Type VI Poisson Rayleigh Student's t Triangular Uniform Weibull |
How BestFit works
BestFit's goal is to find the distribution that best fits your input data.
BestFit does not produce an absolute answer, it identifies a distribution that most
likely produced your data.
For a given distribution, BestFit looks for the parameters of the function that optimise the goodness of fit, a measurement of the probability that the input data was produced by the given distribution. Always evaluate your BestFit results quantitatively and qualitatively, examining both the comparison graphs and statistics before using a result.
BestFit goes through the following steps when finding the best fit for your input data:
- For input sample data, parameters are estimated using maximum-likelihood estimators. For density and cumulative data, the method of least squares is used to minimise the distance between the input curve points and the theoretical function.
- Fitted distributions are ranked using one or more fit statistics, including Chi-square, Anderson-Darling, and Komolgorov-Smirnov.
BestFit gives you all the information you need to decide which fit is the best, and whether that fit is good enough to use. All results, including graphs, statistics and distribution functions, can easily be transferred to other programmes for further analysis and presentation.
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BestFit gives you multiple graphing
options and full statistics for your fits. |
Stunning Graphs
High resolution graphics are used to present the results from your BestFit
run. Comparison, Difference, Probability-Probability (P-P) and Quantile-Quantile
(Q?Q) graphs are all available. All graphs feature sliding delimiters to easily view
specific probabilities or axis values. Want to compare a probability value for your
input data and a fitted distribution? Simply slide the delimiter on the graph and
see the calculated probabilities both on the graph and in the linked statistical
report. Graph types and formatting can be quickly changed using toolbar icons, and
rescaling is done by dragging axis limits directly on your graph. Change titles,
colours, and more! All graphs can be displayed in Excel for further enhancement and
hard copy. With BestFit, it's easy to clearly and effectively communicate complex
results to others.
Detailed Statistics and Goodness of Fit Reports
BestFit generates full statistics and goodness of fit data for your fits in convenient
tabbed reports linked to the active graph. Detailed statistics such as mean, variance,
skewness, kurtosis and more are reported for the input data and resulting distribution.
In addition, BestFit gives you access to full goodness of fit results for all three
statistical tests (Chi-Square, A-D, and K-S). BestFit results are used with @RISK
4.5 Professional and Industrial for Excel, and can also be used with @RISK for Project
and RISKOptimizer. With BestFit 4.5, all your simulations can take into account real-world
data, giving you more accurate results!
Fit Summary Gives you Critical Values, Target Values and More!
In addition to the Statistics and Goodness of Fit tabs, BestFit can generate a comprehensive
Fit Summary report. This report gives you, in convenient spreadsheet format, formulas,
parameters, full statistics, and goodness of fit data for all fitted distribution
functions. Plus, it displays Target Values and Critical Values for each distribution
tested. Target Values tell you the probability of achieving a specific outcome, and
Critical Values identify the criteria by which BestFit accepts or rejects a fit.
These Critical Values can be used to determine how good a fit BestFit has found.
Customise Your Fits
Want to have more control over BestFit? You can tell BestFit which distributions you
want it to try. BestFit also gives you full control over Chi-squared calculations,
including equal interval binning, equal probability binning, and full custom binning.
Furthermore, you can select predefined distributions with preset parameter values
to fit. By giving you access to all these controls, BestFit allows you to tailor
your fits to more precisely meet your needs. However, if you don't use all these
features, BestFit will run fits automatically for you!
Get Up to Speed Fast!
BestFit comes with a complete on-line help system that uses an intuitive
"How Do I?" interface. Simply type in what you want to do, or search the
comprehensive index. Furthermore, the BestFit manual is written in plain, easy-to-understand
English. If you would like further resources, Palisade carries a number of excellent
titles on statistical fitting, including Risk
Analysis: A Quantitative Guide, Simulation
Modeling and Analysis and Statistical
Distributions. And, Palisade offers ongoing seminars on how to use BestFit to analyse
your data for use in @RISK, PrecisionTree, and other models! Visit www.palisade.com.au
for the latest schedule.
Use With Other Palisade Software
BestFit was designed to work with our other DecisionTools Suite products - TopRank®,
RISKview™, @RISK and PrecisionTree®. Start by using TopRank, the What-If Analysis
add-in for Excel, to identify the critical values in your model. Next, in @RISK, the
Risk Analysis and Simulation add-in for Excel, describe your uncertain values using
probability distribution functions. Use RISKview to preview distributions or create
one by simply drawing it and placing it directly in @RISK. Take real-world data and
use BestFit to find the distribution which best fits your data, and use that function
in @RISK to realistically represent uncertainty. Then run a thorough Monte Carlo simulation
and analyse the results! Create a decision tree with PrecisionTree to accurately describe
a decision, and use @RISK to perform a Monte Carlo simulation on your decision tree!
With the DecisionTools Suite, you will be prepared to face the risks in any situation!
BestFit also works with RISKOptimizer™ and @RISK for Project. Use BestFit to find the best distribution for your data sets, and insert that distribution right in your Project or RISKOptimizer models! Then run a Monte Carlo simulation on your Project schedule with @RISK for Project, or run an optimisation in Excel combined with Monte Carlo simulation with RISKOptimizer! One copy of BestFit is all you need to find accurate, reliable distributions to describe your uncertainty in any model!
BestFit Developer’s Kit Available
In addition to using BestFit with other Palisade applications, many companies wish
to use BestFit within their own applications. As a solution, we provide the BestFit
Developer’s Kit. This powerful package allows a development team to create
an application utilising BestFit’s various technologies, enabling you to escape
the bounds of Excel and use our functionality in your own software. Click
here for more information.
가격에는
부가세를 제외한 1년간의 Maintenance를
비롯한 모든 제반 비용이 포함되어 있습니다. 보다 자세한 것은 반품
및 환불에 관한 규정 과 배송
방법 및 기간 를 참고 바랍니다.
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BestFit System Requirements
Minimum
Platform: IBM PC compatible Pentium-equivalent or higher, 16MB RAM, Windows
98, NT 4.0, Windows 2000, Windows XP
Recommended: 32
MB RAM, or greater
Version: 4.5
Developer's
Kit : BestFit Developer's Kit
Technical
Support: 30 days free. Further support available through Maintenance
Plan.
Demo: Web
download and free demo CD with trial
version available.
Training: Available
through Palisade's Software Training Courses.